FIFA 22 - Live Trading Guide

How’s it going everyone, it’s Tygrr here with yet another Trading guide! It’s that time of year again where we get into the first promos so what better time to go through how Live trading.

Over the course of this guide, you will be able to learn what Live cards are, the different types of them, trading methods associated and how they affect the market.

Live cards are dynamic rating items that can increase with individual performance related boosts/awards or team performances. They will never decrease rating so they can either stop at the rating originally given or increase. With that in mind let’s take a look at what Live cards we can potentially see during FIFA 22!

• OTW (Ones to Watch)

An OTW card is a dynamic card of a player who has had a marquee transfer over the summer to a new club. These cards are affected by individual performances during games. If this card were to get any of the following (TOTW/MOTM/HERO/TOTGS) then that OTW card would follow the latest upgrade path. One thing to note is that they will not upgrade to any TOTY/TOTS and other promo card ratings. One brand new feature that applies to all OTW cards is ‘Wins to Watch’. Confirmed via EA stating if the OTWs team WIN 5 of their 10 domestic league games (starting October 1st) they will receive a one-time Inform boost.

• RTTF (UCL/UEL Road to the Final)

An RTTF card is a player card whose team is currently competing in European competitions. 2021/2022 season now includes the Conference League so unsure whether EA would include that in this/future promos regarding Euro football content. Upgrade path is determined by how far the team progresses into the competition, with that said card getting a boost every round stage they pass (an additional boost is granted for UCL RTTF cards that win their opening L16 leg). No other performance related/promo cards will affect this type of card other than purely progressing as a team.

• Headliners

This type of card is similar to an OTW in terms of how it’s upgraded with one additional factor. Headliners usually release mid year which is why players included have already had at least one performance based card. The difference between Headliner and OTW cards is that a Headliner card always stays one TOTW boost ahead of the best released performance related card for that player. One additional boost is also granted when that player’s team reaches 3 consecutive wins in their domestic league.

• What IF

A new addition from FIFA 21. This card type gives a single boost of +2 if they hit certain individual/team milestones within their next 5 games. Defenders/Goalkeepers had to keep a clean sheet and Midfielders/Forwards had to score 6 goals as a team.

• PTG FoF (Path to Glory, Festival of FUTball)

A re-do of the Path to Glory that we originally saw in 2018 in preparation for the WC. Originally we had seen PTG cards follow the trend of the OTW style. However, in FIFA 21 EA they awarded upgrades depending on how far a national team progresses in terms of wins in the competition. This version of the cards require 6 wins to get the maximum upgrade available and 3 wins needed to get the first.

Trading methods associated with live cards:

• Out of Pack Investing

• Live Matchday Trading

• TOTW & Upgrade Hype Trading

Out of Pack Investing

This method works well for the OTW promo which is always right at the start of any FUT cycle. Whilst it can work for other promos, the OTW promo would be the best use for this method purely because some OTW cards are confirmed a long time before the promo is released. So you can educate yourself on transfers and have a clear idea who could be entitled to get one.

Couple of things to look at would be:

• Is the card popular?

• Does the card have a good nation/league for links?

• Stats wise, can the card be considered a Starter Squad player?

Examples:

• In FIFA 20, Christian Pulisic received an OTW for his transfer from Dortmund to Chelsea. We saw a rise from 2.000 coins to 4.500+ during the latter stages of the promo. This was because of his usability being from a good team, in a good league which really lacked cheap starter squad options in that position.

• In FIFA 21, we are turning our attention to Nathan Aké. Card that is pacey and considered overpowered for the price. Combine this with his hype from transferring to a big team within a good league, it means that he was one of the obvious choices for a CB in the Premier League on a budget which most FIFA players are at the start of the cycle.

Graph: Gold Rare Aké

1st point

Really early on when the official release hadn’t happened yet, but with the power of WebApp/Early Access it means most of the hardcore player base have access to the game.

2nd point

The day before the OTW promo and Aké being announced in Team 1.

By this time a lot of people will have their hands on the game. More coins start to come on the market, therefore we see a rise in Aké because of people buying the card for their teams.

3rd point

Midway through OTW Team 1, the demand has soared as people have realised Aké is a fantastic starter squad player for the Premier League which means people are willing to pay extra.

Between 3rd & 4th point

The highest value of Aké can be seen.

At one point reaching 38.000 on PlayStation and 28.000 on Xbox. This was the ideal time to sell.

4th point

Day before the base Gold card comes back into packs. This is where we start and see the initial drop because of the imminent supply that will occur over the coming days.

Red lines indicate when the card is released back into packs as well as the end of the 1st Weekend League after which people tend to sell their teams to scrape back as many coins as possible.

Conclusion: This method is fantastic for the OTW promo. As stated at the start, it can work later in the game cycle for other promos mentioned, however, the need for starter squad type players is not as great as the first couple weeks.

Live Matchday Trading

This method focuses on quickness and reactions. We’ll be taking a look over how things can swing during matches. If a Live card is involved in match days the hype involved in this is astronomical.

Things such as being in the starting line-up, assists and goals all affect individual performance based live cards (OTW/Headliners) along with results/team goals or clean sheets potentially affecting the likes of RTTF/PTG cards.

Example – OTW Bale

We’re taking it back to Tottenham v Burnley. Final score was 4-0 with Bale scoring 2 goals and assisting another. This pretty much confirmed a TOTW spot.

What we really want to be doing is looking at the timing of his key events

• 2nd minute goal

• 15th minute assist

• 55th minute goal

With those in mind, taking the gamble and buying before the match would have really paid off.

Price point the day before the game was 72.000 on PlayStation and 70.000 Xbox. By the same time next day the had already increased by a whopping 100% to 140.000

Example – RTTF/PTG cards

• If the team goes behind, there will be massive undercuts on the card as people will try and get rid of it as soon as they can.

• It’s the entire opposite when the team takes a lead. Cards get bought up at an insane rate and are then resold way higher because of hype and potentially on the way to an upgrade.

• Getting out when you are in profit and not holding too long is key on this as 9 times out of 10 after an upgrade has been given out the card will drop. This is because the majority of the time the card has been overhyped and any upgraded version is usually not worth the coins it has been selling for in the hype.

Anomalies:

With these cards there are certain anomalies that can potentially happen which can affect trading techniques. Below are a couple examples of what has happened in the past.

FIFA 19: João Cancelo was included in TOTW 1 and was released in OTW. This means his base Gold card was supplied for approximately 3 days before going out of packs for 10 days. His TOTW card was in packs for 3 days making that card also extremely rare.

FIFA 20: Frenkie de Jong was included in TOTW 2 and was released in OTW. Meaning his cards were rare right at the start. Coupled with the fact had a fantastic card meant that demand really outweighed supply and his cards started to inflate in price being in limited supply on the market for an extended period of time.

FIFA 21: Marcos Acuña and his PTG FoF card was very undervalued right from the start of the tournament. Great stats however upon release he wasn’t considered the best card in the promo so for a period of time he went under the radar. Then came EA with the addition of Preview Packs, slashing the price by a further 30-40%. In this extreme case most were caught off guard but that ended up being the absolute lowest point for the card. Argentina were always going to make it far in the Copa América therefore upgrade opportunities were easily achievable. By the time the final had come around, the card had risen by 750.000 (300%). This means that if there is a reasonable chance of a team going far in a tournament, a longer hold may prove the most worthwhile move.

TOTW & Upgrade Hype Trading

This is a method that can apply to most live cards. Essentially we’re relying on good individual performances to earn themselves a TOTW and hence getting an OTW/Headliners upgrade.

Let’s look at a scenario after a game where an OTW/Headliner has put in a TOTW worthy performance. Price of the card on the market has gone up by a lot during/just after the game. Reality will kick in and prices will drop/stabilise after the game.

Example – OTW Ziyech

Not a truly game changing card but certainly a good player with a fair bit of hype surrounding him because of the Premier League links and 5-star skill moves.

Graph: Chelsea v Burnley match where Ziyech scored a goal & assisted to get MOTM in that game. Obviously this is warranted hype for an upcoming TOTW.

1st point

The day before the match. Card was at a constant price prior to the game.

2nd point

After the match where the card has risen over 50% purely from hype alone because of a good performance. This can and has happened with many cards during the season.

3rd point

Price stagnates Monday/Tuesday and into Wednesday. TOTW predictions and educated guesses will have kept the hype up causing him to stall at that price. Once the TOTW has been officially announced with him included, the price actually drops because the investor supply of the cards flooding onto the market outweighs demand. A lot of people realise that the latest cost of the card is not worth it coupled with undercuts and mass listings meaning cards like this tend to drop after TOTW release.

This exact method works for all live card types. Buying in the hype early and banking on player/team performances/results can prove massively profitable, however, there always is the element of a gamble in case the player/team does not perform as well as hoped. Just remember to check graphs of any card in question and make sure there has not already been a price inflation from mass investment. If there is, try to steer away as that usually means over investment which then leads to an even bigger crash in the card’s price.

This article was written in collaboration with NezFUT, check out his Twitter! https://twitter.com/nezfut